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The real DD on SLV, the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history

Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban
Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods
Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%.
I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago.
Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there
Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now.
First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after.
Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail.
If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end
I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy
The short squeeze:
Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so.
The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future.
The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years).
The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens.
Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation.
The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule.
The fundamentals:
The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold.
Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil.
This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot.
**If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months **
The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online.
Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand.
The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself.

What to buy:
Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that.
I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens.
Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world.
Alternate options:
- buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay
- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery
- miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage)
Details on SLV physical settlement:
When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus:
"An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future."
Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired.
Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too.
Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side
submitted by TheHappyHawaiian to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Blackberry -- A Dormant Giant

Abbreviation Index:

BB -- Blackberry
AWS -- Amazon Web Services
IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything
QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system)
EOY -- end of year
PT -- price target
SP -- stock price
EV -- electric vehicle
SoC -- System on a Chip
IoT -- Internet of Things
TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY
TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market

FAQs:

1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down?
A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year.
2) Should I invest now or later?
A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP
3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business?
A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV.
4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners?
A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.

Now for the details.

Read this for DD on BB's achievements, certifications, markets, QNX products, EV growth, Spark software and clients, BB Radar, software pricing, and BB challenges:
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Full List of Clients and Partners:

Blackberry Clients and Partners
Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional
Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik
Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung
Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment
Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Blackberry Current Revenues:

BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis
This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth

Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:

see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website
The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal

Pretty Charts

The New BlackBerry Everyone is Talking About $BB

Facebook Settlement with BB

Image
This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS
https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20
Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.

Blackberry New Partnerships

Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX.
A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB

BB's Technical Page on QNX Security

Link
Very technical. But cool stuff.

Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:

Just read this post. It's quite revealing:
Great Day for BB despite stick dipping.
TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.

Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:

Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture:
Image
For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible.
As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure)
see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website

Revenue, revenue, revenue...

Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share

Really, no competitors?

Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.

Conclusion:

All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly.
Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice...
This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
submitted by UncleZiggy to stocks [link] [comments]

The community doesn’t understand game development - A very long post from a game designer

I’ve been playing Destiny for quite some time and I’ve enjoyed the community around it a lot, but the one thing that frustrates me the most about Destiny is how little the community actually knows about game development. It’s driving me crazy, so I wrote this whole thing down. I’m a game designeproducer myself, I’ve never worked on a project as massive as Destiny (not many people ever do), but I have worked on several gaming projects, some of them big in large companies, some of them small gaming apps. I know enough to explain the basics here, but I’m definitely not the ultimate authority on videogames and I’m not representing Bungie whatsoever, everything here is only from my experience. My goal here is to give you some useful info and calm my mind about this.
The Destiny community is incredibly vocal, especially this sub, which is generally a good thing, but the lack of understanding really damages not only the enjoyment of the community members but also the game itself IMO. I’ll explain some of the basics I think any hardcore fan should know here with an example and then I’ll outline some specific problems.
How Games Are Made
A videogame pipeline can be simplified into this flow: Demand from the top/the market -> top management decision -> design and prototyping -> development and feedbacks -> in house testing -> public testing -> marketing and publishing -> data collecting and analysis -> feedback implementation. It’s a circle that applies to everything from the big picture like the main campaign, to the smallest details like colors of shaders or proofreading of even the smallest posts. Every decision made in this system, even the tiniest ones, has to be debated, supported by data and expertise, approved in multiple places based on the priority, and checked multiple times after it’s implemented.
Game developers, especially in a powerhouse like Bungie, are very skilled, talented, experienced, and passionate people who always do their best to navigate that flow to satisfy the demands with a quality product delivered on time. I can’t stress this enough, developers (including QA testers, designers, artists, marketing, publishing, the whole team) are pretty much always incredibly hard-working people with a love for video games, because otherwise, they would never stay in this scummy business. They’re underpaid, overworked, and most likely overqualified for what they have to do. Some of them know almost everything there is to know about their field and they’re always improving as well.
Because video games, especially gargantuan living games with real-time action combat like Destiny, are insanely complicated, you need sometimes hundreds of experts to put them together. The pipeline needs to be perfectly planned, flexible so you can adapt to problems, and also easy enough to implement so you can deliver the product on time. All of these factors result in a tight-rope walk that never ends.
Now it’s time for an example. Let’s say during Season of the Worthy you get an assignment to create a catalyst for Thorn that would make it more popular in PVE, but doesn’t make it overpowered in PVP. Seems simple enough, right? There are dozens of posts about this topic on this subreddit, how hard can it be. The answer is, very, very hard.
You start working on your designs. You analyze all other exotic catalysts and hand cannon perks in the game - how they were made, their philosophy, psychological effects, and how they influence gameplay, you discuss everything in your team. When you create your first version, your design lead tells your whole team that hand cannons are getting a range buff and Thorn is now a 140 RPM and you have to adjust your design. After that, your priorities get shifted to helping with Beyond Light and the DSC weapons so it’s finished on time, so you put Thorn on hold. You don’t want to waste time though, so you give the art team an assignment to create the catalyst icon.
After two months of work on Beyond Light, you come back to Thorn, but now you basically have to start over because the future meta has changed so much. You create new designs and this time they’re approved by management, so you move onto prototyping. Developers are way too busy debugging and QA testing Beyond Light, so they have no time for Thorn and that task gets put into their To-Do list. You have no choice but to move onto your other tasks and start working on weapons for seasons 13 and 14.
When development starts finally working on Thorn, they find an exploit in your design that would allow it to two tap in PVP, you have to rework it again and hope they’ll have time to implement it this time. They don’t and the Thorn catalyst now officially misses its deadline and is pushed from Beyond Light. The marketing team doesn’t hear about it though, so they publish the icon you had made four months ago, leaking the catalyst coming out. This is of course your fault, but these things happen during all the chaos and there was almost nothing you could have done.
When you finally push this task through and it’s checked and approved dozens of times in different places (weapon design team, design lead, writing, sandbox team, development, QA, studio director, etc.) you have to make sure it’s published correctly in the right build, it has all necessary descriptions and marketing texts done and translated into all languages and the community managers know about it so they can get ready to collect data.
This single task took you a year to complete even when you did your best to do it fast and well and I left out about 90% of problems you would normally encounter. THIS is game development.
Community Attitude and Feedback
Now we get to why the uninformed community hurts the game so much. This sub would only see Thorn getting a catalyst and it would immediately be flooded with posts like “The catalyst sucks in PVE, buff pls”, “Bungo doesn’t care, the catalyst sucks for Warlocks” and a few “Why catalyst for Thorn, but not for Skyburner’s Oath”, completely missing the point of the catalyst and adding nothing to the discussion.
Bungie devs are way more informed, skilled, and experienced than us, the community. The only feedback they are interested in from us is quantitative - basically what we like and what we don’t like about the game. Any posts giving them ideas, elaborate reworks, or straight up negative outrage will accomplish nothing, because they already know everything about the game and discuss it daily in way more detail than we could ever imagine. The only qualitative feedback they should collect and measure is from content creators and the top 1% of the player base because those people actually know some aspects of the game Bungie doesn’t. I know it may sound like the hated “Bungo only listens to sweats and Youtubers”, but that’s kinda the point, they should be listening.
It doesn’t mean that our voices are ignored or not listened to. I would bet all of my money that all forums are constantly monitored and analyzed. The truth is, however, that the only valid opinion we can give that Bungie should consider is what aspects of the game we like, and what aspects we don’t. Anything beyond that we already tell them through data they collect from our play sessions.
As I wrote above, any change within this massive game is complicated and could take months or years to be implemented, so being upset we don’t have everything now is just useless. Bungie is hard at work to make good stuff, we should respect them more and not bring out the pitchforks every time a season slows down a bit and we can’t play for four hours a day every day for the whole year. There will always be problems in a live game and they are doing a fantastic job, I can’t even imagine how much work must go into it. So before you post about something in the future, take a moment to think about the process and figure out what exactly you can provide to the devs with your feedback, because otherwise, you’re fanning the flames on something that probably isn’t actually burning. It’s just taking its time as it should.
With all of the above said, it isn't the community's fault that we're not informed. The fault lies entirely with Bungie not educating people enough and this problem could be avoided.
Reasons Why Things Suck
I’ll close by giving my two cents on why the game isn’t perfect and never will be, just so you know where the community's frustrations should go.
  1. The biggest reason that influences everything - Bungie is a company owned by a group of shareholders that will always force the studio to grow and provide more profit. With every extra dollar, the value of the company grows and the board of directors gets richer and because of the super predatory capitalism we live in now, Bungie has to justify every single decision with a monetary value. It's not the fault of the devs, they don't make much money themselves.
  2. The game is massive and always online. I’m pretty confident that no other studio would be able to support Destiny for so long without the game completely crashing down. Technology always evolves and it’s almost impossible to keep a living game up to date, so some parts of the front end of the game will always suck because Bungie has to upkeep the back end we will never get to see.
  3. The project has been going on for a decade, which leads to people wanting to naturally move on. Replacing team members on a living game is very difficult, which leads to problems and delays.
  4. The community is not educated about the game enough, which is why I ended up writing this. The continuous cycle of negative outrage that comes from a lack of understanding damages the game because the devs are forced to deal with it without disclosing information. If people knew more, they could help Bungie, but no company that wants to make big profits will ever open up its communication because it would show just how many decisions are influenced by the search for profit.
That’s it, sorry for the length of this essay. I hope you learned something and let me know if you’d be interested in more stuff like this (takes on sunsetting, sandbox, etc.). I would like to give people more info so they don’t waste their precious time on stuff completely outside of their control and maybe educate people about the industry. I love the game and I hope you’ll appreciate it a bit more now.
Edit 1:
This post is not meant as a defense for the faults of the game or an excuse for bad decisions, it's meant as a resource to give you perspective and information. If you believe the game is not as good as it was promised to be or disagree with some design choices made, you are of course entitled to your own opinion, and there are quite a few things I myself absolutely hate in Destiny. I can't answer questions related to design on Destiny with confidence, because I don't work for Bungie and I won't speculate much on why certain decisions were made. I can give you my opinion on stuff like sunsetting based on my experience in another post, but ultimately it's only speculation with little benefit. All I will say is that there is always more stuff we don't know about the game than we do know and design should be judged in context.
When it comes to questions related to Bungie's scummy tactics when it comes to monetization and bad communication, I agree with you, as I said above. Money is the biggest factor of why Destiny suffers and the best way for us to do anything about that is to stop buying it. I know it's a cliche statement, but it's true.
And lastly, for the comments saying stuff like "shut up, Bungie sucks and you know it", please read what I said again and think about it. The devs most likely love the game just as much as you once did, if not much more.
Edit 2:
I'll add one thing that keeps popping up. It's clear that Destiny is a product developed for profit, so if your outlook is "I don't want to know about development, I'm just an unhappy consumer that didn't like this product", I agree as would most likely everybody that it's absolutely a valid stance, but that's not what my post was about. If that's how you see any product, you should tell the producer why you didn't like it if you care enough to do so and move on. The post is meant to inform people who don't want to move on from Destiny, especially those who continuously engage with the product from a place of understanding even if they don't have it, which wastes their time and does nothing for the product. If you don't like this game or any other game, it's absolutely OK and you should move on from playing it, complaining about things you don't want to understand won't help you achieve what you want and only makes the game worse. As I said above, the best way to show your disagreements is not to support the company and if you don't like Destiny, please stop playing it and take care of yourself. Your time is valuable, don't give it away to someone you don't agree with.
Edit 3
This will be the last edit on this post. I appreciate all the awards and great discussions happening below, but holy cow did this get a lot of vitriol. I expected a lot of negativity, but it still surprised me. It's partially my fault for trying to talk about so much with not enough room so I'm sure I made a few mistakes. I'll reply to a few things that I want to make clear and then leave this alone, it's way too long anyway.
If you see any malicious intent, attacks, arrogance, or "Bungie shilling" between the lines, I put none there, at least not on purpose. My goal was to inform, as I said right at the start, so if you see any other agenda, it's not there and my writing either wasn't clear enough, or you're looking for something that I didn't write. Take the post for what it is, a stranger on the internet telling you something you may not know from their experience. If you disagree with me, downvote the post and explain why, no need to insult anyone, you're once again wasting your precious time.
I didn't mention management as a problem on Destiny, because I don't know enough about it. Leadership is very often a problem on any collaborative projects but calling someone out without the necessary data is exactly what I warned about in my post, so I won't comment on it, but feel free to disagree with me. Maybe you know more about the subject than I do and I'll be happy to read your reply.
I never put myself up as an ultimate authority on the subject, all of this is just basics I thought hardcore fans should know and I communicated that. This post was already very long and I didn't have time, nor did I want to describe theory in detail, so insulting me over not explaining how scrum works in a post meant for people with no experience is not necessary. If you want to argue about production methodologies, my reasoning on examples given, and how healthy management looks like with me please feel free to message me and I'm sure we'll have a cool conversation, I'd love to hear about your experience from working in gaming.
And that's it, I hope you got something out of this. Have a great day and see you around.
submitted by Theseus17 to DestinyTheGame [link] [comments]

BlackBerry DD

Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's on installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling.
Bull:
Where I think growth can be made:
  1. QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
  2. IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
  3. IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
  4. Professional services (support) for the products listed.
  5. AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
  6. SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
Bear:
Prediction: I think QNX can become a $1B revenue per year alone. $2B revenue per year as a company is not far fetched. Without a subscription/usage based model, it is difficult to see how growth can go beyond that. BB is good in 2-5 years, not this year. I can see their revenue growing to potentially $2B - $4B revenue per year. They did mention trying to figure out a subscription/usage based billing, if done then the revenue would be much higher. I think $18 is a fair price on the high end. It could grow further than that, but expectations would be HIGH.
Resources:
  1. John Chen interview: https://youtu.be/_hQQlCWMrQA?t=313
  2. John Chen interview: https://youtu.be/FNdbGhun2E8
  3. J.P. Morgan IVY presentation: https://cache.webcasts.com/content/jpmo001/1416508/content/58ffe5daaa24e738fdef0d065b9b15077892ea63/pdf/secured/BlackBerry_-_Winter_2020-21_Investors_Deck.pdf
  4. IVY: https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/aws
  5. QNX: https://blackberry.qnx.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/qnx/software-solutions/embedded-software/qnx-neutrino-rtos/pdf/QNX-Neutrino-Product-Brief-v7.pdf
  6. QNX Hypervisor: https://blackberry.qnx.com/content/dam/qnx/products/hypervisohypervisorGEM-ProductBrief.pdf
  7. QNX Tools: https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/embedded-software/qnx-software-development-platform
  8. Spark UEM: https://www.blackberry.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/blackberry-com/en/products/resource-centeresource-library/guides/guide-blackberry-spark-uem-suites.pdf
  9. Spark UES: https://www.blackberry.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/blackberry-com/en/products/resource-centeresource-library/briefs/Solution_Brief_BlackBerry_Spark_UES_Suite_Final.pdf
  10. AtHoc: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/blackberry-athoc
  11. AtHoc in healthcare: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/blackberry-athoc/healthcare
  12. SecuSUITE: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/secusuite
  13. Customer oriented solutions - continuous authentication: Start the video at 5:04: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/events/security-summit/2020/video-details/work-anywhere
  14. Easier link: https://vimeo.com/497426347
  15. VW OS: https://electrek.co/2020/06/19/vw-to-develop-its-own-operating-system-but-dodges-question-about-id-3-software/
Position: 1,500.
Disclaimer: I don't know everything, I may be incorrect about some things. This is based on what I've researched and to the best of my ability. Do your own DD. Obligatory this is not an investment advice.

Edit: This is the only sub with a lot of discussion. I appreciate y'all.

🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
Edit 2: One day later, marked closed $18.03. Crazy.
submitted by _MoveSwiftly to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What your life will be like as a programmer

I know a lot of folks are getting frustrated in their learning process, and in their life, so I wanted to talk a bit about what your life will be like once you've landed your career.
edit: This is a pretty American-centric viewpoint and experience, and one born out of having experienced a decade of struggling financially in stressful jobs working 50-60 hours per week.
For reference, I'm self-taught, and before programming I was a line cook for 6 years, and IT help desk for 4. I went to school for English, History, and Music. I got my first actual programming job at 29 and have been writing web apps for the state government in America for just under 5 years, but am now moving to Norway in two weeks to start a programming gig there.
My Entry-Level Pay and Situation
I started off in a very, very low-end pay structure. About 43k USD per year. But I did get full health benefits and some retirement contributions, which was great. I was able to afford my own apartment at 1350 USD per month.
The Big Shockers
First, I didn't have to budget food anymore. Somebody else mentioned this, but woah, this was amazing. I went from strict meal planning around the cheapest meals I knew to basically having whatever I felt like. Granted it's not steaks and lobster for every meal, but I could make whatever meals I wanted without worrying about how much they'd be. I could also eat out at restaurants way more often too. The amount of stress that was removed from not having to worry about how much food costs was enormous.
Second, I didn't have to worry about where I was at work at all times. Or hardly ever, for that matter. No more "hey can you cover the phones while I go to the bathroom?" Saying "hey can I get the Monday two weeks from now off for a doctor's appointment" instead became "oh I've got an appointment tomorrow at 2 so I'll be out for the rest of the day after that." Oh yeah, I got health insurance, finally. More on that later. I mean I could literally just say "hey I'm going for a walk around the block" and nobody would bat an eye. We would gather groups of folks up for a walk to the coffee shop just to take a breather. Multiple times a day. Your work becomes project-based and you become the person who decides if you've done contributed a good enough amount of work at any moment in order to take a break. And lunch is whenever the hell you want it to be. Meetings throw a wrench in the gears of your break plans but that's about it.
Third, and pretty closely related to the one above, paid time off is no longer something you have to fight others over. I didn't have to worry about if I was the first one to request Christmas week off or not, because it doesn't fucking matter. Everyone takes it off. I also often took a week or two off in the middle of Spring just 'cause. Same with sick days. For one boss I kinda had to worry 'cause she would set ridiculous deadlines, but once she moved on my guilt over taking a sick day was gone.
With all of these things combined, life became just fucking easy. I really didn't realize how goddamn caught up I was in survival mode until I was able to leave that lifestyle behind. When I stepped outside of the building after a work day work just totally left my mind, and it was replaced with total excitement for the rest of my day. Removing so much of that stress and end-of-day exhaustion left room for actual, real-life peace and excitement. Holy fuck this was so, so, SO fucking amazing.
Unexpected Side-effects
One of the biggest side effects that I didn't really foresee was how much healthier I got. Both physically and mentally. Having struggled with anxiety my whole life, I had always been grossly underweight. 125lbs at 6 feet tall. Couple that with worrying about how much it would cost to feed myself, and suddenly there's a recipe for awful health. But now I could feed myself, which gave me more energy, which meant I could spend that energy on getting healthier.
Regarding my mental health, when I started my programming job I was 2 months fresh out of a divorce, so needless to say I wasn't doing super great mentally. Luckily, I could now afford therapy! Holy fucking shitballs, therapy was awesome, but I guarantee it would've sucked if I didn't have the extra mental energy I had from having a 40 hour week job that didn't beat my ass with tons of stress. My free mental energy allowed me to confront all kinds of shit from my childhood that I realized had been contributing to making me miserable. And since I was living alone I could work through the crazy physical and mental rollercoaster that comes with dealing with your shit. I didn't have to worry about not crying in front of anybody, because it was just me. I didn't have to worry about rage-punching pillows and screaming into them, 'cause it was just me. My apartment became healing grounds for family shit that had been passed down to me from my parents by their parents and their parents' parents.
So, my life started to become amazing. I gained 40 pounds, finally settling into a healthy weight. I started making better friends. I started getting back into the dating world. Life became pretty goddamn good.
And the OPPORTUNITIES. I mentioned I'm moving to Norway. After you've got a good 3-5 years of programming experience under your belt, you can go pretty much wherever you want. Literally wherever. And your new job will be super grateful to have you. And with the options you have, you really get to decide what you want in life. I thought maybe I wanted lots of money so I applied for a job at 140k USD per year, but I ended up turning it down, showing the offer to my boss, who then raised my salary up to around 80k per year. I took the 80k per year. When I was struggling, I would've slapped future-me in the face for turning away 60k per year, but once you're out of the struggle, you get to choose the lifestyle you want. I like a slow-paced gig, not tons of pressure, and I would've had to give up a couple of work-from-home days, which I didn't wanna do. It's really hard to explain this decision to somebody struggling, but I hope that everyone here gets the opportunity to choose between the two.
The Only Problem
Soap box time.
After living the good life for 3 or 4 years I started to reflect on my life beforehand. I had a lot, a LOT of gratitude for my situation having come from shit, shit jobs and a shit, shit life. I became my own superhero for getting myself out of all of that. I had these awesome connections with co-workers who had done the same. People who got their families out of dangerous neighborhoods. People who moved from secretary work at 45 and into programming, finally being able to exercise their creative, problem-solving minds.
The problem comes from realizing how goddamn hard we all had to work to get here. Like, these are all people who were dealt a shit hand, and the only hope they had was to spend 1-4 years ruining their relationships and friendships and shirking all other aspects of their lives in order to get out of it? How the fuck is that fair? These brilliant, amazing people had to forgo meals so their kids could have a babysitter for 2 hours a day while they studied programming.
You realize after a little while that these were just the people who made it. Who were luckily enough to find the time, the money, or the mental effort. We are all so grateful for where we are at, far more than anybody else could be, and you do have that to look forward to. But we look around at our close friends and family members who will never escape the rut they're in, and it's pretty soul-crushing.
A job should not be the thing you need to escape the Catch-22 of I-can't-get-better-because-my-life-sucks-because-I-can't-get-better. But, if you're like me and it's the only option you have, for the love of GOD do it. Put your own airbag on before you help the others around you.
submitted by MeedleyMee to learnprogramming [link] [comments]

Poverty in the world's 6th richest country

Poverty in the world's 6th richest country
Walking in the woods near London last weekend, I discovered three homeless camps hidden within the trees. That night, temperatures dropped to -6°C, next morning there was 3 inches of snow on the ground. This is the reality of life for many vulnerable people in Britain today.
https://preview.redd.it/2yi6a3sia9e61.png?width=643&format=png&auto=webp&s=74a5bebf7cb12a502cc246f8fdd75139873895e2
Over the last 18 months, I've discovered 8 similar camps in woods near my home, within 25 miles of London. Many of these makeshift camps (including these two), though well-hidden, are situated within 200m of a row of massive mansions, many of which lie empty.
https://preview.redd.it/7dmwrosja9e61.png?width=943&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd7b172325ec8ff46f77a903e6c7b8f21f91f04b
The average price of a mansion on this one road is more than £2 million. Their huge gardens back onto the extensive woods & commons in which these desperate people have chosen to build their shelters because they offer thick tree cover & the best chance of going undetected.
https://preview.redd.it/t48qftoka9e61.png?width=943&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf97528ad4c671f9d549170d96221baa77cfeb27
I was shocked to discover these camps, and evidence of more that have been abandoned. Shocked and shamed by the juxtaposition of such enormous wealth alongside such devastating poverty. But should I have been surprised?
More than 4m children are living below the poverty line in Britain today. In the 6th largest economy on earth. Since April 2020, 350,000 children in England are living in a household where someone has had to “skip a meal in the last week”.
Inequality is greater in modern day Britain than it was in ancient Rome. In ancient Rome, the richest 1% controlled around 16% of society's wealth; today in Britain, the richest 1% control around 21%.
Imagine living in a country where every third child you saw was growing up in poverty. Now open your eyes. Because that’s us. Anne Longfield, children’s commissioner for England, released a report last week. https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cco-child-poverty.pdf
How did it come to this? The fact 14.3 million people live in poverty (22% of all people, 34% of all children) in the world's 6th largest economy is a direct result of more than a decade of Tory policies. https://fullfact.org/economy/poverty-uk-guide-facts-and-figures/
It’s entirely deliberate. A homeless 17-year-old with mental health issues given a tent to live in by the council = Tory Britain: demonising the very idea of society, started by Thatcher, completed by Tories with MSM, Lib Dem & working-class support. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55246562
Police recently charged a homeless man for breaking coronavirus regulations for being outside. He was charged with "being outside of the place where you were living, namely no fixed address”. I’d say “you couldn’t make it up”, but the Tories did. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/coronavirus-homeless-man-sultan-monsour-lockdown-law-charge-liverpool-street-a9510186.html
Tories don't care about homelessness - they are not homeless. Tories don't care about food banks - they don't use them. Tories don't care about the NHS - they go private. Tories don't care about you - they care about their bank balance.
Boris Johnson assures us he didn't burn a £50 note in front of a homeless man, and I for one see no reason not to believe the self-satisfied, dishonest narcissist. But if you look at their record, you have to understand that there will be no respite while they are in power.
With homelessness up by 50% since 2010, with rough sleeping doubled, with 120,000 children homeless, and a 22% rise in the deaths of homeless people in the last year, we have a right to be shocked. And how Tories use our money is shocking too…
You and I are paying this lot £300 each every day for the rest of their lives. Every one of them is already a millionaire, and all they have to do for that money is sign their name in a book. Imagine the effect of giving every homeless person a fraction of that a day.
https://preview.redd.it/sgrrqdffa9e61.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=1719a819adcca1bc5cf09490c789eca87ff18a68
This is how Tories spend OUR money. It's not spending, it's stealing. You could feed 2,000 homeless people for one day for the same money just one consultant is paid for one day creating an app which doesn't work. http://web.archive.org/web/20201015065412/https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/consultants-fees-up-to-6250-a-day-for-work-on-covid-test-system
Tory government has no compassion, because Tories have no imagination. They simply cannot believe that they could ever be in this position themselves. To a Tory, the homeless person is a slacker, a lazy good-for-nothing who gets exactly what they deserve.
As such, the theory goes (it’s not something they hide, they’ll tell you – just ask), there is no duty to help, that just encourages idleness. If people want to starve & freeze: let them.
No matter that those homeless people may have fallen on hard times because their employer went out of business off the back of Tory policies. No matter that many ex-services ended up on the streets due to ptsd, suffered as a result of government sanctioned conflicts. Because we should remember, it is not just millions of ‘our own’ who are impoverished by the actions of ‘our’ government. Tories just sank £16.5 billion into the Ministry of Defence (‘offence’ really), making bombs to drop on poor people around the world. That’s what we do.
No matter that 50% of homeless people have suffered traumatic head injury prior to becoming homeless, it’s still their fault. No matter that many victims of child abuse end up on the streets, again, to a Tory, it’s their own fault.
Tories always point to just one part of the pathway leading to despair. Hence, drug-taking may be foregrounded as the excuse which allows government ministers to sleep at night, rather than the abuse & suffering which led to the drug-taking in the first place.
It’s a catch-all conscience clearer: “they brought it upon themselves; feckless layabouts, we’re doing them a favour leaving them to suffer, maybe they’ll pull their finger out now…” But homeless people are not worthless. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-55559382
And it’s also not just the fault of the government, or the traditional Tory voter; many more are to blame for the state of modern Britain. In recent history, we had two great opportunities to put this kind of suffering where it belongs: in the past.
The choice in 2017 and 2019 was basically: Boris Johnson gets rid of the NHS, or; Jeremy Corbyn gets rid of food banks, homelessness, child poverty, zero-hour contracts, austerity, tax breaks for the rich etc. That should have been an easy choice…
But people decided the last election was the Brexit election. They forgot it was also the climate election, the investment election, the NHS election, the living standards election, the education election, the poverty election, the fair taxes election: the change election.
How did they forget? Why were voters so obsessed with one issue? Why didn’t voters care about other things? The answer is at least partly due to mainstream media. The MSM wasn’t just busy bashing Jeremy Corbyn, it was also busy avoiding any issue which might harm Boris.
Thus, in the first 3 weeks of the last election campaign, the subject of 'housing' registered 0.2%, 0.6% & 2.4% prominence in the MSM despite more than 300,000 homeless people in the UK as we moved into winter. Shows how much the MSM cares... https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/general-election/report-3/
In the first 3 weeks of the last election campaign, the subject of 'social security' registered 1.2%, 1.2% & 3.0% prominence in the MSM despite 4 million children in the UK living in poverty. This proves that the MSM avoided the shameful record of the Tories...
Any news hack, politician or voter (who didn't back Corbyn) that mentions poverty, homelessness, NHS sell-off or climate change in the next 5 years had better be reporting good news, because I won't be able to stand the vomit-inducing hypocrisy if they say things are bad.
Jeremy Corbyn was slated as a ‘bloody commie’ for threatening to give up a massive country house to help the homeless… He is the leader we could have had were it not for the power of elites protecting their pile. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-chequers-labour-general-election-itv-interview-queens-speech-a9232506.html
Priti Patel could gut a homeless person, Dominic Raab could shoot an immigrant, Matt Hancock could wave his little willy around in public & Boris Johnson could take a shit in the Serpentine before the MSM expressed anything more emotive than mild distaste.
Be under no illusions, the MSM is the enemy of change. Without the MSM’s dereliction of duty in terms of reporting the realities of modern Britain, the working-class traitors who signed up for Tory madness would never have done it. But they did!
It's almost 100 years since the 1920's General Strike. Working-class voters, fighting for their rights, voted in the 1st ever Labour government. They'd be spinning in their graves if they knew that 100 years later, working class voters would crown Boris & his Tory goons.
https://preview.redd.it/pooawv7ub9e61.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=17dd9a00e2ca330f6da8af66977d966348243d86
This was a dereliction of duty every bit as dreadful as the MSM Tory free pass, and the betrayal of Iain McNicol & Tom Watson et al. We now have to live with it. Including those people desperately hanging on in the woods near where I live.
When we move on, there must be accountability - not just for the Covid car crash, but for it all: capitalism, climate catastrophe, war, poverty. We need something new, & accountability starts at home. So if you know a Tory voter, you need to start educating them now.
We mustn’t only imagine a society where psychos and sociopaths are locked up rather than allowed to be in charge: we must make it happen. Because when we elevate the obscene to positions of power, everyone suffers.
People deluding themselves that politicians like Keir Starmer offer anything substantially different to the Tories is dangerous - it is what allows neo-liberals to continue driving us off the climate and poverty cliffs.
Starmer's response to a £16.5 billion increase to 'defence' spending was: “We welcome this additional funding for our defence & security forces & we agree that it is vital..." "Vital" - during an economic emergency, despite no actual enemy and while people are starving!
Only obscenely wealthy privileged elites could imagine anything is 'irrespective of political differences.' How could the poor, homeless or bereaved have a Happy Christmas? Starmer literally helped steal a socialist Christmas last year. https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmestatus/1342193647543062533
If something is broken, you fix it, recycle it or chuck it. You don’t replace it with another broken part. We have to do better than Starmer… we have to do better than ‘centrist’ Labour. So, what positive steps can be taken now?
Four things, 3 of which are immediately actionable, are vital: 1. Dumping Starmer’s Labour Party – Labour had it’s day, but is dead, we must bury it. 2. Finding a new party to get behind: there are lots of options, but no consensus (this may need more time to coalesce); 3. Friends & relatives who betrayed their roots have to be enlightened; 4. We must destroy the MSM. We can’t wait for legislation to remove the monopoly of the media barons, so we need to act ourselves. Never buy a newspaper, never register with an MSM provider, never link or quote media without ensuring you avoid funding their propaganda, instead celebrate & support the rise in alt media.
The first step in liberating our democracy lies in destroying the hold MSM has over the political system. It’s time we supported media which reports on the real stories rather than protects the wider disease.
It starts with a story, this new modern Britain. The current story is old, and it won’t change unless we choose a new story-teller. So that’s what we must do. We need to support the true free press with subscriptions & disseminate their message.
novaramedia.com https://thecanary.co https://skwawkbox.org https://evolvepolitics.com https://www.doubledown.news
Please consider signing up for one or more of the fantastic media providers listed above (there are loads more), and boycott the MSM.
Thanks for reading - more from me here: https://twitter.com/Calumets/status/1352231138610343936

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MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry

MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain.
About Them
MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars.
Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source
Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain?
Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued.
The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments.
MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present
Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking:
The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April.
The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react.
That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol.
As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.)
However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so.
Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter.
Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt
(1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already.
Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to)
It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving?
https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05
Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.
This could identify individual people
Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
If their devices can really recognize people, objects, and pets, it could integrate security verticals in MicroVision's business model. (Video surveillance is expected to reach a 144.5 B market size by 2027) Why not just use cameras? Cameras are worse at long distances,
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap.
So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing.
Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up).

Growing Industry
The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications.
Traffic Accidents in the US alone Cost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles.
Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry.
If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable.
At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\"

Augmented Reality
The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside.
NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'...
'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'...
'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'...
'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
From 2002-2006, MVIS commercialized versions of a monochrome (red) VRD for industry and the military. It was called Nomad.
Microvision also developed a full color version for the military, the Spectrum SD2500.
The military alone currently intends to spend almost $3B on IVAS, augmented reality devices that use MicroVision tech, in the next several years. (Video at 1:12 - "based on Microsoft's Hololens" - amazing, must watch - "lets you see around corners.. see through smoke") (There is a money trail to confirm too: financial report)
One of the many capabilities of the IVAS heasets.
MicroVision revolutionizing the way people use GPS systems, to launch in July. (GPS industry will be 146.4 B by 2025)
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
There's a reason that Apple CEO Tim Cook said a few weeks ago that Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
Imperial College Healthcare using Hololens 2 to fight the coronavirus.
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
Mercedes-Benz using Microsoft HoloLens 2 for faster, safer vehicle service.
Mercedes-Benz Virtual Remote Support
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product. Source

Patents
MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500.
Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model.
MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition.

All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar
MicroVision: founded in 1993
Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005
LAZR: founded in 2012
Non-Public:
Valeo: Founded in 1998
Robosense: Founded in 2014
SureStar: Founded in 2005
Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding.
https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb
Insider Activity
MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out.
On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014.

Institutional Investments
For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day.

Recent Events
MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so.
Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021.
7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years.
December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4.
January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8.
Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar)
Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition.
Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying
“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.
Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved).

Talent at MicroVision
Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone.
Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass.
Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems.

Technical analysis
Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports.
Moving Average Analysis:
On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%.
On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%.
6 months forward price target: $34.348B

Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR
LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B
VLDR at 3.92B
MVIS at 2.77B
MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years.
This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
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Complete DD on HCMC Share Structure: Clarification on Share Dilution, Outstanding Shares, Float, Authorized Shares and the Meaning behind the letter from the CEO.

Complete DD on HCMC Share Structure: Clarification on Share Dilution, Outstanding Shares, Float, Authorized Shares and the Meaning behind the letter from the CEO.

1. Introduction

This is a post aimed at clarifying some misconceptions that have been arising over the past day(s) throughout Reddit/StockTwits/Telegram/WhatsApp/Facebook. Everyone was concerned over the recent apparent "dilution", and many many sources were deemed as either false, or not cited and just taken as is. There are a few concepts worth going over, especially for the newer investors who have taken part of this community, and for the more experienced ones, you are welcome to amend my list by letting me know.
This has been written in an attempt to not let new investors panic when "new information" arises, and to raise awareness of what is going on with HCMC and the associated terminology.
P.S. I have a TLDR in here for people who already know the definitions and want to skip
P.P.S. the tables I have added might not be fully visible on a mobile device, so if you want to have an in depth view of the numbers it is strongly suggested view this post on a computer instead.

2. Different Type of Shares and Dilution

These are a series of terms that are needed in order to understand the content of many sources, they are mostly pertaining to different share types and the mechanics of dilution.

  1. Authorized shares: are the maximum number of shares a company is allowed to issue to investors, as laid out in its articles of incorporation.
  2. Outstanding Shares: Shares that are issued or sold to investors from the available number of authorized shares are known as outstanding shares.1 This is the total amount of shares available to the public including employees and insiders.
    1. Restricted Shares: Stock owned by insiders, employees or major institutional investors, that is under some sort of sales restriction (such as a lock-up period - you cannot sell the shares until a certain date)
    2. Float: The term float refers to the regular shares a company has issued to the public that are available for investors to trade. This figure is derived by taking a company's outstanding shares and subtracting any restricted stock. 2
    3. Unrestricted Shares: When a lock-up period expires or a certain condition is met, restricted shares turn into unrestricted shares which in turn increase the float.3 N.B. Sometimes unrestricted shares are used as a term to indicated float + restricted shares that have been converted to unrestricted
    4. Shares Held at DTC: are the shares we can buy on our brokerage platforms such as Trading 212, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab etc. and represent the real float as DTC stands for Depositary Trust Company and most of the biggest broker-dealers in each country are DTC-participants. DTC offers settlement services for trading securities in the markets.
  3. Main Categories of Stock:
    1. Common Stock: (Ordinary Stock) is a security that represents ownership in a company, i.e. shares of a stock that we buy on brokerage platforms such as Trading 212, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab etc.
    2. Preferred Stock: are shares of a company’s stock with dividends that are paid out to shareholders before common stock dividends are issued. These are different from common stock as they are issued primarily by banks and other financial institutions, and were originally intended as a way to raise capital without diluting value for their ordinary shareholders. Not the shares we invest in. 4Preferred Stock - Purpose:
      1. Access to dividends before common shareholders
      2. Seniority over common stock in the event of liquidation or bankruptcy (seniority in this case means that preferred stock holders get paid before common stock holders
      3. Limited upside potential/capital appreciation meaning they don't get to participate in the profits as much as common stock holders if the share price increases.
  4. Dilution: Common stock holders own the corporation, and dilution reduces that level of ownership. As owners, common stock holders benefit from corporate earnings through dividends and/or higher stock prices. Any security that reduces the ownership percentage of common stockholders is dilutive. 5Dilution can happen in the following ways:
    1. Issuance of New Shares (Dilutive-Secondary Offering or Follow-On Offering): involves creating new shares and offering them for public sale. This type of secondary offering happens when a company's board of directors agrees to increase the share float for the purpose of selling more equity. 6
    2. Through Convertible Securities: These are securities that have been already issued in accordance to previous filings that can be converted into common stock and have a dilutive effect even if no no new issuance of shares occurs.
      1. Convertible Preferred Stock: Holders of convertible preferred stock can exchange their shares for a specified number of newly common shares. Convertible preferred stock is dilutive since conversion increases the number of common shares, thereby reducing the ownership level of each. 7
      2. Employee Stock Options: are a type of equity compensation granted by companies to their employees and executives. Rather than granting shares of stock directly, the company gives derivative options on the stock instead. These options come in the form of regular call options and give the employee the right to buy the company's stock at a specified price for a finite period of time.8 Once these are converted into shares, they are dilutive.
      3. Stock Split: a stock split increases the number of shares by splitting 1 share of the company's stock into x shares, therefore diluting the shares.
  5. Accretion: is the opposite of dilution, whereby the it increases the level of ownership of a company by decreasing the number of shares outstanding. A company can accomplish this either through
    1. Share Buy Back: A share repurchase refers to the management of a public company buying back company shares that were previously sold to the public. 9
    2. Reverse Stock Split: a stock split decreases the number of shares by unifying 1 share of the company's stock into x shares, therefore decreasing the number of shares shares.
  6. Market Cap: (Market Capitalization) is the value of a all company's shares of stock and is computed as number of shares outstanding x current stock price

An IMPORTANT note on Dilution: A company has to file an 8-k (more on that later) in order to inform existing shareholders of dilution. Every dilution is done by expanding current outstanding shares ONLY. The theoretical possible maximum of shares is the authorized shares which is unlikely to ever be reached as one of the purposes of issuing new shares is to raise capital, so if a company would reach its maximum capacity (of authorized shares) it wouldn't be able to raise more equity capital without buying back their shares.

3. TLDR - Different Type of Shares and Dilution


  • Authorized Shares are the MAX total number of shares a company can issue ever

  • Outsanding Shares are the current number of shares available to everyone

  • Float = Outstanding shares - restricted shares (held by insiders or under lock-up)

  • Unrestricted Shares: is when restricted shares become unrestricted (may be used to indicate float + unrestricted shares)

  • Shares Held at DTC: are the real float for us as the majority of brokers-dealers are DTC-participants

  • Common Stock is what we all are buying on our respective platforms

  • Preferred Stock is are issued primarily by banks or other financial institutions

  • Convertible Preferred Stock is when preferred stock gets converted to common stock (causing some dilution)

  • Dilutive Events: Issuance of New Shares or through Convertible securities previously issued or stock splits

  • Accretive Events: (Opposite of dilution) share buy-backs and reverse stock splits

  • Market Cap: number of shares outstanding x current stock price

4. HCMC Share Structure - As of Feb 3 2021 at market close

Why are the above definitions important to understand? There has been a picture, or a couple for that matter that show the above terms applied to HCMC that have either been called "fake" or misquoted.
Disclaimer: All this data is directly from their website, OTC Markets data and Yahoo Finance from the date and time this DD will be posted, so please no comments on how the data is inaccurate, Reddit does not have dynamic tables that update themselves with the most recent prices. All further calculations will be explicitly shown.
  1. HCMC Share Structure from HCMC Website - Feb 3 2021 at market close
Authorized Shares. (Max. Shares Possible) [from OTC Markets]* 750,000,000,000
Outstanding shares 194,780,848,017
- Restricted Shares (Insiders only) 29,750,000,103
- Unrestricted Shares (float + restricted shares turned unrestricted) 165,030,847,914
Shares Held at DTC (amount we can access through our brokers)** 117,468,270,189
Closing Price $0.00165 (rounded at $0.0017 on website)
Market Cap unrestricted shares x closing price = 272.201 million
source: https://healthier-choices-management-corp.ir.rdgfilings.com/stock-information/
* https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HCMC/security
**https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HCMC/security
Screenshot evidence:
HCMC Website Stock Information - Feb 3 2021 5:00 PM ET
2. Yahoo Finance Data:
Below we will analyse the data directly from Yahoo Finance's website for HCMC:

Outstanding shares 105.11B
- Float (Outstanding shares - Restricted shares) 86.84B
Closing Price 0.00165
Market Cap 173.43M
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HCMC/key-statistics?p=HCMC
Screenshot:

Yahoo Finance - HCMC Stock Info - Feb 3 2021 5:00 PM ET
Why are we seeing differences in Shares Outstanding and Market Cap?
  • If we take a closer look at the notes on the market cap field (note 5) we can see Yahoo Finance's method of calculating the market cap: Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
This means that the figure used for the Outstanding Shares has been taken directly form HCMC's most recent 10-Q filed on 11/18/2020 with the SEC. \*
\* The amount comes from page 3 of HCMC's 10-Q under the table name: "HEALTHIER CHOICES MANAGEMENT CORP. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY STATEMENTS FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 (UNAUDITED)"
In terms of real float, i.e. shares accessible by us from our brokers (held at DTC)
the float accessible to us by our brokers is the shares held at DTC which is 117 billion
How much of a difference is there between the last company's 10-Q and the most recent data from the company's website?

Outstanding Shares (11/18/2020) - Official HCMC 10-Q 105.11B
Outstanding Shares (02/01/2021) 194.78B
Difference 89.67B
So we have an 89.67 billion Share difference between the two dates.
This has been due to convertible instruments being converted into stock, as illustrated in the CEO's message in response to the increase in shares outstanding.
3. Taking a look at the CEO's Message:

Message from Jeffrey E. Holman - HCMC CEO
As we can see in the CEO's response:" All shares issued over the past two months were done so pursuant to convertible securities previously included in our 8-K and periodic filings."
  • Therefore, the 89.7billion increase in shares outstanding was due to either:
    • Preferred stock converted to common stock
    • Stock options converted to common stock
    • or both.
  • The CEO also stated that the number of shares is updated on a monthly basis by the OTC markets.
  • Therefore, the increase in shares outstanding has been done in accordance with the previous filings before HCMC started to get all of this attention.
4. Conversion:
As stated in HCMC's 2020-09-25 8-k:
  • A notice of 20 calendar days must be given upon intent of conversion
  • This means that when any holder of a convertible security want to convert their instruments to common stock they would be required to send a 20-day notice period

What Does This All Mean?

Assumption
I will give my own interpretation of what happened, this represents my own personal opinion as I am not a financial advisor.
  • Given that Preferred Stocks grant you limited exposure to potential upside, this means that holders of Preferred Stock have their capital gains capped and therefore do not make money when the share price increase as they mainly receive dividends and have seniority over common stock
  • Given also Stock Options give you the right to convert the option to shares once a certain period has expired
  • The original date that Phillip Morris was supposed to respond to the lawsuit was end of January, it has been extended to the 26th of February on the 19th of January.
  • In order for holders of convertible instruments to converts these into shares, a 20-day notice period must be given.
  • As stated by the CEO, shares outstanding data is updated each month. As of January 2021 we had the original shares outstanding and as of February 2021 there was an increase due solely to convertible securities being converted.
  • Any material events must be disclosed in the proper filing, therefore there will be no dilution coming from anything other than convertible securities unless HCMC explicitly files the appropriate 8-k (relates to corporate events).
Tying Up All the Key Points
My assumption is, and again to reiterate, this is my own personal opinion after hours research, that:
The holders of these convertible shares knew that the lawsuit would be end of January. For several years the share price remained stagnant at $0.0001. The holders of the convertible shares gave a notice period 20-days prior to the lawsuit response because they knew something we do not or they were very certain about the outcome of the lawsuit (again just conjectures) that they wanted to convert their convertible instruments to common shares in anticipation of the share price increase we are seeing now and in anticipation of a positive outcome for the lawsuit.

This is just my own opinion, but if this does hold, it is very good news to us all, as insiders converted their instruments to common stock in order to ride the share price increase the same way we are doing, in anticipation of the response to the lawsuit.

The Shares held at DTC, the ones that we are allowed to trade on our brokers are 117 billion, as opposed to the outstanding shares of 194 billion.
References:
1. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/011315/what-difference-between-authorized-shares-and-outstanding-shares.asp#:\:text=Authorized%20shares%20are%20the%20maximum,available%20number%20of%20authorized%20shares).
2. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is-companys-float/#:\:text=The%20term%20float%20refers%20to,some%20sort%20of%20sales%20restriction).
3. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/free-float/
4. https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/what-are-preference-shares-and-should-you-buy-them
5. https://smallbusiness.chron.com/preferred-stock-dilute-common-stock-63841.html
6. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secondaryoffering.asp
7. https://smallbusiness.chron.com/preferred-stock-dilute-common-stock-63841.html
8.https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eso.asp#:\:text=Employee%20stock%20options%20(ESOs%20are,to%20their%20employees%20and%20executives.&text=These%20options%20come%20in%20the,a%20finite%20period%20of%20time))%20are,to%20their%20employees%20and%20executives.&text=These%20options%20come%20in%20the,a%20finite%20period%20of%20time).
9. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/share-repurchase/
submitted by acchello to HCMCSTOCK [link] [comments]

Friday 1/29/21 GME Expiry Date Means Nothing. Don't buy into the hype - shorts aren't just afraid of this Friday. Come down the rabbit hole with me.

Note: I am mostly summarizing the aggregate of explanations currently floating around about the 1/29/21 option expiry date. I don't claim any knowledge. This is not investment advice. Do your own research, don't invest what you can't afford to lose, and if something feels wrong it probably is.
TL;DR: This isn't about options (yet), it's about shares, and Institutional Investors are playing a dangerous game by convincing us (some of y'all have bought in without realizing it) that a magical short squeeze has some 3-day time limit, that Friday is somehow the end game, and are hoping that when investors don't see a $5,000 short squeeze by next week they will fold and take their gains at a "reasonable" double-digit stock price. Don't believe them. They can survive through mid-late February before the true short squeeze smashes upward. And I'll be ready. I like this stock and believe in it's long term potential, and I think it's undervalued.
THESIS: If institutional investors can (1) convince retail investors to sell stock at low prices and (2) convince their lenders to wait, then the 0.01% get richer.
JUSTIFICATION: There is so much public sentiment (passion, enthusiasm, excitement, anger, whatever) surrounding short (~1 day) price movements*, and Friday's expiring options (these are also end of month contracts), that it seems like big clever money may be trying to artificially create a sort of bear trap for shareholders.
Whatever happens in the next week or so (crest to $700? crash to $60?) almost means nothing in the long term, but could fool investors into giving these guys CHEAP ways out of their 140% float short interest positions. Remember, these are people who have been dumping tons of money for a long time, shorting the stock when it was in the single digits. They've been hoping for a GameStop bankruptcy, and manufacturing one as best they can.
IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME: Remember the VW infinite squeeze, where we saw weeks of crazy price movement before the actual peak. And that is a mild case, as most of the shares were held by an entity with legal, competitive, and strategic reasons and obligations forcing them to hold shares and artificially reducing the float, or available shares for trading. This reduced supply caused the short squeeze.
However, this time around we've got a huge short interest, much much larger by comparison than that from VW's 2008 peak, to the tune of 140% of shares available for trading (float). They've massively overreached, and are going to pay the price for that. But they haven't yet.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE: This time, however, if the big dogs can shake shareholders hard enough, weak links break and paper hands fold and a fantastic long term play starts to seem out of reach. The market manipulation wins.
DARE TO BELIEVE: Unfortunately for the shorts, GME has real long term prospects to revolutionize the gaming industry for consumers, and now has the attention and potential equity momentum (if they play it smart, which I think the new leadership will) to make this a reality.
From that link above:
In GME's case the rise in the stock price itself will likely result in fundamental improvements to the underlying economic metrics of the company.
I believe.
However, if the shorts can fight, sneak, manipulate, and otherwise adjust the share price down this week then they start to see light at the end of the tunnel. They make 2-3 week plans for doing the same thing. For them, prices don't have to bottom back out, they just have to convince enough people to sell that they buy thrmselves a few weeks before a short squeeze really takes them all under.
*Some of this price movement is shorts covering, but much is actual legitimate investment between retail investors and other institutional investors who have seen the light. Remember, TSLA didn't get to where it is because one company made some bad short positions. But if GME shorts can convince everyone that a 3-day squeeze is all they get until GME crashes to some "normal" level, then they win.
Everyone getting hyped about Friday is playing into their hands. Yeah maybe some will need to take gains after a Friday pop, but a smart long-term hold position on GME is what they're really afraid of. And I want to be a shareholder in GME's future, as many wanted to be with TSLA. And sure, maybe if everyone else thinks that way too, there may be an incidental short squeeze that wrecks the uber wealthy in mid-late February along the way.
Again, I am not claiming to be knowledgeable or insightful, just commenting my best guesses. Nobody knows the future. This is not investing advice.
🚀
submitted by dwarfboy1717 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$PLTR - The Big DDD

I don't get what you guys are worried about with PLTR.
Here's my personal DD on PLTR, you're welcome to read and do whatever you want. Other helpful info or pointing out mistakes in my DD is very welcome.
Fears preventing you from buying PLTR
  1. Targeted ads on your phone from Yahoo Finance or Zacks telling you PLTR = BAD!!!1!eleven
  2. Shills spamming "pLtR tO tHe MoOn" and :rocket: on PLTR thread comments.
  3. Last quarter's seemingly bad financials/earnings.
  4. Financials Moving Forwards
  5. Soros who owns 21 million shares "threatening" to sell his shares upon DPO expiry.
  6. DPO expiry 3 days after February's earnings and possible insiders and DPO holders sale and dip.
  7. What does PLTR tldr.
  8. Other Information

#1 Targeted Ads
Ads and articles are both paid for by someone.The fact that in the past 3 weeks i've been getting multiple multiple targeted ads on my phone related to PLTR since i love PLTR so much.
Ads are telling me that PLTR is bad, doesn't provide a dividend, they're telling me PLTR's fair price is 20 instead of 25 based on some financial model and have gone as far as to provide a list of alternative stocks to buy.
To me, this all screams: SCARE TACTICS
Additionally, the last few weeks of ups and downs in PLTR's stock price is another indication of the attempts to short the stock to sh!t and drive investors out. (For what reason? I don't know.)

#2 Shilling PLTR
I myself love to shill PLTR to people whenever i can. I do this because i legitimately think this company will do great. I work as a product manager in a software development house and understand what PLTR does. PLTR is not cryptic.Regardless, i think when people shill PLTR to you, they are right to do so as you're probably missing out on a great opportunity to make money in the long run. If you're looking for big gains short term, maybe try something else.
Shillery is OK, but at least give the facts.

#3 Last Quarter's Bad Financials
If you'd done your DD not by searching reddit posts but by checking PLTR's actual quarterly report, you'd know that PLTR's "bad" last financial quarteearnings were due to the costs of listing themselves on the New York Stock Exchange.~855million were spent on listing and stock related compensations and this is the big reason.
Direct quote by PLTR here: https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
We incurred a loss from operations of $847.8 million, which includes $847.0 million in stock-based compensation following our recent direct listing.
I would like to remind everyone that this is a 1 TIME THING. Put simply, this means that PLTR won't have as excessive losses next quarter as they did this last quarter.
Additionally, let me go into further detail on this and not just leave it to that.
ADDITIONALLY...
PLTR also had a higher R&D cost this quarter that just passed. Normally they'd pay 80 million on R&D, but somehow ended up paying ~300 million this quarter. No one knows why, but this is another thing that influenced PLTR's earnings.
https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
On September 30, 2020, in connection with the Direct Listing, we incurred $769.5 million and $8.4 million of stock-based compensation using the accelerated attribution method related to the satisfaction of the performance-based vesting condition for RSUs and growth units, respectively, that had satisfied the service-based vesting condition as of such date.

#4 PLTR financials moving forwards
PLTR is deep in bed with the government and the Biden regime although may look like it would be against using PLTR is in fact secretly very pro-surveillance e.g pro Palantir.
Here's some of the known organizations in the US Govt that use PLTR:
  1. CDC
  2. Office of the Secretary
  3. Food and Drug Administration
  4. Immigration and Customs Enforcements / ICE
  5. Internal Revenue Service / IRS
  6. National Institute on Drug Abuse
  7. DOD/ARMY - ACC Aberdeen Proving Ground
  8. Coast Guard / DHS
  9. DOD/NAVY - Naval Information Warfare Systems Command
  10. US Attorney's Offices / DOJ
  11. US Special Operations Command / SPEC OPS
Boys. The big institutional people know these things. You just found this out. See how deep PLTR is already in bed with the Government?????? Palantir IS the next Raytheon/Lockheed of DATA aggregation and visualization.
UPCOMING EARNINGS
I've done some quick maths and it looks like PLTR is more likely to be in positive earnings this quarter and with a 0.02 cent EPS target, we can easily assume that they'll destroy this with maybe 0.04 or 0.08 EPS. In the worst case scenario, PLTR's EPS this quarter could be somewhere around MINUS -0.05 ish due to interview costs and ad/campaigning costs that were not there before the company was listed.
WHAT CAN DESTROY PALANTIR
Now, there's big possible downsides and Palantir can fail IF contracts that expire are not renewed. That's biggest REAL reason for Palantir's balance sheet getting screwed.
I've seen a disturbing pattern with PLTR's financials and that's that every year, it's R&D cost is rising by between 150 and 350 million dollars. This is quite a bit of negative revenue and if new contracts are not constantly coming in, PLTR's balance can start going into the negative.
WHAT WILL NOT DESTROY PALANTIR
Some people may have concerns over the new left leaning government dumping PLTR. An article was posted that is behind a paywall EVERYWHERE that goes something like this:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-officials-urge-biden-team-to-dump-palantirs-covid-tracker
In my opinion, i believe this is inconsequential and that a few people crying to daddy Biden to kill a multimillion contract with PLTR is a stretch. Also we know the current new Biden team has his hands full and will have them full for at least the next 1 year with what's going on.
There is no time to deal with a few crybabies and even if he did deal with it and did decide to kill the PLTR Tiberius Covid tracker contract with the CDC which he WONT, these things take months and years to deal with, and by then the contract/s will have already brought PLTR tons of money and revenue in.
HOW MUCH DOES KARP AND HIS GOONS GET PAID
Short answer is... A LOT. The amounts below are PER YEAR. That's a lot of money in the hole and contributes to annoying amount to why PLTR is always just at the edge of just barely being profitable.
https://preview.redd.it/ba58nqcurob61.png?width=2615&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d45833faad4d60ea8dc142a9601c44b4cc7395
Palantir's prospectus 311 page document's 130 last pages are almost all exclusively talking about extremely complicated options trading schemes that are made by Cohen and others to make sure they can squeeze out a LOT of money out of PLTR.
Mithril Investments has existed from before and is not a new company. Owned by Thiel/Cohen/Karp as a way to launder and exchange options for more options and more money for all 3 of them. Also Shyam Sankar to me feels corrupt which scares me a bit, he's had some very shady dealings and has brought his wife in PLTR that gets paid 200k per year.
Prospectus Document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm
I suggest you skim through it, it contains EVERYTHING about Palantir.
Palantir is going to need to have to be getting AT LEAST 500 million in NEW contracts per year to REMAIN BARELY profitable. It's doable in my opinion, but just barely and it's why they made the company public to try and get more people's attention and increase the inflow of contracts.

#5 Soros and his 21 million shares
First of all, i think we can all agree that Soros can suck it.
If you've read a few articles here and there, you'll know that Soros owns/owned 1% of Class A PLTR shares. No one knows whether he's sold them yet or if he's an DPO holder who'll sell 3 days after February's earnings.
Whether he sells them or buys more will be mostly inconsequential in my opinion. We see dips and pumps every day. He legally cannot sell his shares all at once, he'll have to sell certain amounts daily and over time. This will create annoying sideways motion as shares exchange hands and consolidation starts for 2-3 weeks until his and insider shares exchange hands.
Nothing special to see here, move along just a little draw down resulting in some consolidation.
PLTR is exposed to OIL more than anything, so fluctuations in the general market and general market crashes affect PLTR much less than other stocks. Also PLTR does not track ANY benchmarks. NONE.

#6 DPO expiry 3 days after earnings in February
To my limited knowledge, this is how BIG plays who are holding DPO shares usually work:
There's a total of 1.16Billion Class A PLTR shares currently (Give or take don't flog me). We are currently trading with ~250 million shares while the rest are locked away in the DPO.
When those shares are "unlocked" in February, the price of the stock won't be diluted. These shares already exist and are accounted for. They are simply locked. Also when they are unlocked, the share price won't simply multiply because all shares are now tradeable.
According to Palantir’s after-hours filing with the SEC this afternoon, the company has 1.16 billion Class A shares, 484 million Class B shares and 1 million Class F shares on its cap table outstanding today, or a total of roughly 1.64 billion. Only Class A shares will trade, and Class B and F shares are convertible to Class A shares on a one-to-one basis. On a fully diluted basis, which Palantir says represents 2.2 billion shares total according to its most recent S-1 filing, the company is valued at $16 billion. The difference between those two aggregate numbers comes from outstanding stock performance grants, warrants and other financial instruments.
What WILL affect stock price:
To note, regular employees will barely affect the price of the stock with their miniscule share holdings. Alex Karp, Peter Thiel and a handful of other high ranked executives in PLTR are the ones that will create a tiny but manageable ripple in the stock price.
What COULD affect the stock price a lot:

#7 What does PLTR do, tldr.
Imagine Facebook's database of everything about everyone & Youtube's Database of everything & Geolocation data in a database made by the US Army for known terrorist cells.
Palantir allows you to select and match varied data TYPES from several different database, combine it in any way you want and visualize it so that it's human readable by even the dumbest person in the room so that even they can see patterns and come to conclusion on a subject matter.
It's kind of like filling an excel sheet with data and then visualizing it with a bar chart, except the date you filled the sheet with can be anything and not just numbers or dates or countries and you can make various combinations using all the different rows of data to maybe come up with a pattern to something like how to best distribute the Covid vaccines in the counties in a very specific state in the US.
Literally what you see in SciFi movies where people combine random data by smashing keys on a keyboard and somehow find the murderer, the location of a terrorist or the percentage that someone will commit a murder in the future based on a lot of random data about that person or the area, country, family, history... anything.
While this all might sound super cool and amazing, it is. Maybe in 10 years time there will be a few more companies doing this, but for now, it's only Palantir, Circles, Alteryx and a few other private entities that do this type of thing. Many of them work with governments and are hush hush due to the kinds of things they use this type of software for (terrorist cells, warzones, etc) and the public backlash this could cause.
tldr: Glorified data aggregator and visualization platform/software with different access levels for different people.
PLTR is superbly positioned to offer their software to SLOW and Boomer like organizations like Governments.
Governments are stupid and don't have neither the time, nor technical knowledge to develop this software themselves for internal use. This is what PLTR capitalizes on and why Governments use them so much.
Governments could have spent the a fraction of the money they spend on PLTR contracts to make the software themselves but only for their own internal systems and use, but they can't and if they tried, they'd fail because technocracy in governments is not a thing. By the time they'd even complete a project like this, it'd likely be out of spec, unusable and would require further development and money and we know how slow and bad governments are at doing even the basics. Again PLTR wins because of this.
PLTR is likely NOT to be adopted by giants like Google or FB or other modern tech organizations of any size because they are not stupid. They have their own purpose built internal systems that they use to do everything related to data aggregation and visualization because they have the technical knowledge and resources. Buying PLTR for their use is a joke.
PLTR capitalizes on being general a general purpose tool and is set up manually by an engineer over the course of 4-10 days for each customer. The engineer customizes and configures the system for each company's custom use since the software allows you to do so. Regular aggregation and visualization software CAN do the same, but typically lacks data input types and features that PLTR has because PLTR has cultivated a special set of features over many years that were suggested by their existing clientele in battlefields and other places.

#8 Other Information
\*Big known PLTR Holders*\**
https://preview.redd.it/a404oalxrob61.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2dbcfac5a7ca207127771ec4e3133f8d943359
\*PLTR's Price List (2019)*\**
https://www.esi.mil/Download.aspx?id=7186

\*Personal TA and Crayon Mania*\**
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTnrjqL4dw-PLTR-Risky-April-100-200-possibility/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLT5YcdCye0-PLTR-Schizzo-Technical-Analysis/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTCkCTvtqM-PLTR-PLTR-train-leaving-the-station-get-ready/

\*PLTR stock pumping events*\**

\*Similar Companies*\**

\*Known Contract Info*\**

\*Past and new US KNOWN gov contracts. Source* govtribe.com\\**
https://preview.redd.it/kbim7afrrob61.png?width=1392&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abc99d9995c4972919e275f407e1bba6382dfdd

\*Quotes from Won and LOST contracts from Federal Agencies*\**
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH) - WON
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) intends to award a contract without providing for full and open competition to Palantir Technologies, Inc., 100 Hamilton Ave., Suite 300, Palo Alto, CA 94301.
Veteran Health Association - WON
The pandemic-related data management and operational decision-support requirements have led the program office to determine that the Palantir data management and analytics platform is the only viable solution that would maintain the current operational capability, without a degradation in VHA COVID-19 decision-support.
AFLCMC Wright Patterson AFB (DOD - USAF - AFMC - AFLCMC) - LOST
Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) held meetings in January/February 2020 timeframe with potential vendors to determine their capabilities and their abilities to meet this mission requirement. They met with Palantir, Recorded Future, Altyrex, In-Q-tel and Semantic AI. From the information they gathered in those meetings it was determined that Semantic AI would be the only company that could fully meet the requirements of this effort without further delaying the project and incurring additional costs


Now friends, here's my position on PLTR. I'll be holding onto it for the next year. If it's not at least 300% by then, i'm selling it and moving on to the next stock. App i'm using is Revolut.
Also yes, i'm ALL-IN only on Palantir because i know my money will multiply itself in the short term. I'm not holding this till 2025 as others are supposedly doing. I'm selling in 2022 with 300% or more profit. PLTR is severely undervalued, underpriced because it's a DPO. Give it till EOY and we're going to be rich. If it was an IPO it'd be trading at 180+ already imho.
I've spent the last month and a half holding PLTR. I've gone full schizzo mode when it comes to PLTR. I lose sleep daily and i love it. I hadn't slept for 37 hours a few days ago because i spent so much time researching PLTR and scraping the internet for all possible information.
I come from an IT/Development background, so i understand what PLTR does completely.
My PT's for PLTR are:
https://preview.redd.it/4t0k1ujprob61.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b3a16265edafa290432e6b79f9009e3df99f495
submitted by Leenixus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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